Future Storm

Global Warming


Our planet has been gradually heating up since the last Ice Age ended 10,000 years ago. Temperatures have steadily increased at around a quarter of a degree for every 1,000 years. Until recently.

During the last 100 years temperatures have increased by twice that amount. As if that wasn't alarming enough, all the warmest days occurred during the last decade. Experts are now predicting that temperatures are set to increase by as much as 6 degrees centigrade during the coming century - a rise that could herald devastating consequences.

So, what's going on and what are we doing to prevent disaster?

Greenhouse Effect

The terms 'global warming' and 'greenhouse effect' only hit the headlines in the 1980's. Environmental scientists working in Hawaii found that carbon dioxide in the atmosphere had increased by 8 percent between 1959 and 1983. They attributed these figures to man's accelerating usage of fossil fuels.

Scientists determined that harmful gasses from cars, industry, and farming were actually the root of our planet's woes. However, both global warming and the greenhouse effect are essential to life on Earth.

As the sun warms the earth, certain gasses in the atmosphere act like the glass of a greenhouse - trapping heat and keeping the planet warm enough to support life. Without them we'd be plunged down to a freezing -18 degrees centigrade. The problem only occurs when subtle changes upset the balance.

Scientists determined that increased concentrations of water vapour, CFCs, methane, and carbon dioxide were actually harming our environment. Collectively known as 'greenhouse gasses', intensified amounts of these gasses effectively insulate the Earth and prevent heat from escaping. This is causing global temperatures to rise to alarming levels.

Ozone Layer

Some greenhouse gasses, like carbon dioxide, appear naturally in the atmosphere. But CFCs (short for chlorofluorocarbons) are a direct result of industrial processing and chemical engineering. CFCs are found in aerosols, refrigerator coolants and air conditioners. They are much more harmful than other greenhouse gasses.

CFCs are believed to be responsible for destroying a part of the atmosphere known as the ozone layer. At an altitude of around 10km, the ozone is a protective layer that reduces the amount of ultraviolet light emitted by the sun reaching the Earth. Besides being harmful to our skin, increased UV light also contributes greatly to global warming.

Despite the threat of CFCs, carbon dioxide still causes the most damage to our environment. That's because there's so much more of it being produced. In fact, carbon levels in the Earth's atmosphere have risen by over 30 percent since man began relying on fossil fuels during the industrial revolution 160 years ago.

Motor vehicles are now responsible for around 15 percent or 400 million tonnes of our total carbon output. Scientists know that if car numbers increase at the present rate there will be more than a billion on the road in 2025.

Atmospheric Pressure

Of course, all animals breathe oxygen and exhale CO2. Plants and micro-organisms like plankton in the ocean do exactly the opposite - they convert CO2 into oxygen through photosynthesis.

It's estimated that photosynthesis converts around 60 billion tons of carbon dioxide every year - in fact, it's the most effect way to reduce carbon levels. However, this is almost perfectly balanced with the amount of animals exhaling CO2. Which is why the destruction of the earth's rainforests is so critical in upsetting the Earth's ecosystem.

More than 50 percent of the forests that existed after the last Ice Age have disappeared. Rainforests in South America, Asia, and Africa are being cut down 10 times faster than First World nations are re-planting them

It doesn't take a genius to figure out that this current situation is unsustainable.

Future Storms

Global temperatures have risen by 0.6 degrees centigrade over the last 140 years. It may appear an insignificant amount, but if temperatures continue to increase at this rate by 2050 the consequences could be catastrophic.

In fact, some scientists are actually predicting an increase of 6 degrees centigrade during this century. Their conclusions are simple enough to understand - a domino effect of climactic changes that could spell widespread devastation during our lifetime.

Floods, deserts advancing across Europe, earthquakes, and giant tidal waves are just some of the things we have to look forward to.

Geohazard Experts

Bill McGuire heads Europe's largest hazard research centre. He's a professor of geohazards - a science dedicated to predicting environmental changes around the globe. McGuire and many other scientists like him believe global warming will have consequences we can barely imagine today.

In the year 2000, one in thirty people were affected by natural hazards worldwide. McGuire and his researchers reckon that many of those hazards are due to climate or weather, and that it's only going to get worse. In 50 years time - says McGuire - wind storms, floods, and drought are going to be affecting all of us.

"Nobody is safe and nowhere is safe," McGuire says chillingly. "There's going to be nowhere we can run and avoid the impact of global warming."

Changeable Situation

Rising temperatures and shifting ocean currents will cause the polar ice caps to melt. In fact, the Larsen B ice shelf in Antarctica is a perfect example. A chunk of ice measuring 3,250-square-kilometres broke away in March 2002.

So, imagine if you will, millions of square miles of ice, hundreds of feet thick adding to the globe's oceans. Sea levels around the world are set to rise just like pouring water into a bath

Computer models predict that this will have dramatic effect - especially on low-lying, densely populated coastal areas like estuaries and deltas. Just a metre rise could flood the Nile Delta in Egypt and leave nearly 20% of Bangladesh under water. By 2050, the low-lying Netherlands could become swamped and parts of London and southeast England could be immersed.

Fluctuations of the Gulf Stream across the Atlantic ocean could herald a serious upheaval of Europe's weather systems. As temperatures rise over the next 50 years, deserts could spread from North Africa and march across Europe.

Worse Things Happen at Sea

Our oceans play a key role in controlling the earth's climate. Because water is 1000 times more dense than air, and retains warmth four times more, the oceans store vast amounts of heat. Ocean currents transport heat around the globe. almost like the flow and return of hot water in your central heating pipes at home. However, warmer seas also mean devastation for underwater ecosystems.

Rising temperatures are having a devastating effect on coral. In 1998, scientists announced that most of the world's coral is dying. In fact, huge swathes of it have already disappeared off the coast of Florida.

Coral reefs are produced by tiny marine creatures known as polyps. They have rigid external skeletons made of calcium, which over the years form vast colonies. Coral occurs around the world in warm waters above 20 degrees centigrade, and usually at depths of less than 50m. The great Barrier Reef is the largest and best known coral reef.

It's estimated that over a quarter of all marine fish are found in and around coral reefs - which occupy just 0.02% of the world's oceans. This might explain why coral reefs are sometimes referred to as the ocean's rainforest. Since as much as 15% of the world's entire fish yield is caught here, this means dire consequences for local economies. But this loss cuts far deeper.

Storm Damage

Reefs act as a breakwater which provides shelter to islands and coastlines from the violent storms of the open ocean - particularly during the hurricane season. Of course, it's the ocean temperature which also generate hurricanes - the most powerful and most feared storms in the tropics.

Hurricanes are enormous rotating low pressure weather systems that are large enough to view from space. They bring torrential rain and thunderstorms and very strong winds. Hurricanes raise the sea level in their path and often cause flooding on low lying coastlines. This phenomenon is known as a 'storm surge' and can reach as much as 4m in height.

The conditions have to be just so for a hurricane to form - the sea's surface temperature must be above 26.5 degrees centigrade. In order to be classified as a hurricane or typhoons and cyclones as they're known in Asia - the wind speed must be above 73 mph. Around 50 tropical storms reach hurricane status each year.

Warmer oceans mean that figure could double. Tropical atolls like the Maldives - which rise less than 1.8m above sea level - could disappear forever. Along with their population of over 270,000 people.

Earthquakes and Tsunamis

Geologists believe the rising sea level will have added implications which may prove even more decisive than the weather. The extra weight from millions of cubic kilometres of water may cause stress on weak points in the Earth's crust - known to experts as the lithosphere.

This could trigger earthquakes and volcanic eruptions along fault lines causing local devastation and send harmful gasses and debris into the atmosphere. There's also an increased danger of tsunamis. These giant waves are generated from underwater earthquakes which can travel thousands of miles across an ocean at speeds of 500 miles per hour. They appear without warning and with waves up to 30m high.

Geologists are predicting that the volcano on La Palma in the Canaries could explode at some time in the future. The result would send a mega-tsunami 500m high across the Atlantic and could engulf parts of the UK.

Global warming is a world-wide phenomenon. Continents, countries, counties and communities may exist thousands of miles apart but nobody lives in complete isolation. The repercussions of man's irresponsible behaviour and the resulting natural disasters does and will affect us all.


The Future

The current outlook with global warming is not particularly bright - and unfortunately it's actually going to get far worse. The world's population is expected to increase from six to more than 8 billion in the next 50 years. These people will inevitably increase the strain on the earth's already very stretched resources.

Understanding how the global carbon cycle works is essential for experts to predict how our climate may behave in the future. It will help us figure out exactly what measures we need to take to reverse the world's destruction. It's not a simple process - but then predicting the future never is

Computer Models

Experts at the Hadley Centre - an experimental arm of the Met Office - focus on the scientific issues associated with climate change and prediction. Their research is devoted to understanding the physical, chemical, and biological processes within the climate system.

With government funding and a couple of powerful Cray T3E supercomputers, the experts monitor both global and national climate changes. The mathematical calculations used are so complex that they can only be performed by computers. State-of-the-art computer programs have been developed to work out these formulas. They are called 'climate models'.

Various types of climate model are used to determine an array of predictions. These include:
* Atmospheric chemistry
* Ocean circulation
* Regional climate
* Carbon emissions and other greenhouse gases

Climate model software simulates detailed 3-D representations of global climate changes over the last 100 years. They also illustrate the sort of climatic variations we can expect in the coming century. The Hadley Centre admits their climate models are always subject to a degree of uncertainty - they can only be only as good as the information they are being fed.

Outlook Changeable

Nevertheless, the launch of a recent joint report from the Hadley Centre and the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research made some worrying predictions. By the 2080s, annual average temperatures across the UK may rise by between 2 C and 3.5 C.

Our summers will become more frequent and very cold winters will become increasingly rare. They also estimate that with soil moisture across England falling by as much as 40%, marking serious difficulties for farming and agriculture.

Sea level around the UK is also set to rise by between 26 and 86 cm. Which effectively means places like south east England become more susceptible to storm surges and serious flooding.

Bucking the Trend

To reverse the effects of global warming most scientists and governments agree that we need to take drastic action. We must reduce the world's carbon emissions, cut back on the production of CFCs and other ozone-destroying chemicals, and halt deforestation.

In December 1997, the United Nations held the Framework Convention for Climate Change in Kyoto, Japan. The Kyoto Treaty legally binds industrialised nations to reduce worldwide emissions of greenhouse gases by an average of 5.2% by 2012. Less than four years later, George W Bush - President of the United States - pulled out of the Kyoto agreement causing uproar.

A scaled down version of the treaty was later agreed, with concessions to countries who assist other nations to reduce their emissions. Critics have pointed out that this opens up the system to abuse and would allow certain countries to increase their emissions.

They also argue that gases can remain in the atmosphere for a century or more. Emissions would have to be cut by around 60% to really make a difference. However, while this would have a beneficial effect on tour environment it would also have significant impact on global economies.

Meanwhile, January, February and March of 2002 were globally the warmest since records began. The time bomb is ticking....